Aussie dollar traders eyeing jobs data; US dollar a bit lower

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Aussie dollar traders will be hanging on the release of th​​e September jobs data at 11.30am AEDT this morning. In the lead up the AUDUSD is hardly changed day on day at 0.7846. The market is expected a rise of 15,000 jobs during the month to follow August’s stellar 54,200 gain. Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 5.6%. Levels to watch for the Aussie are 0.7810/15 and 0.7897/7905. A break either side will likely see an extension.

The US dollar is a little lower this morning as traders seemed to focus on the weaker than expected building permits even though there was also more talk about the ECB extending its bond-buying program for another 9 months. That’s seen the USD index down marginally at 93.397 this morning down 0.1%

The Euro, however, is higher by 0.25% at 1.1796 after a run to a high of 1.1805 overnight. Why the USD index is lower is because of the surge in USDJPY which is up 0.64% at 112.91 as stocks and bonds keep rising and as the BoJ signals it will hold the line on rates and monetary policy.

But while the Euro is holding above the key supports we have been watching it is still not out of the woods with some chat that it is mapping out a head and shoulders pattern. The key here is that EURUSD has to hold 1.1660 to avoid a big fall. While it does it’s still consolidating the recent run higher.

GBPUSD is higher this morning after average earnings were a little stronger than expected in August up 2.1% excluding bonuses and up 2.2% with bonuses. That, and the fact the unemployment rate held at the decade-low of 4.3% suggests that whatever the dovishness BoE speakers expressed the night before the chances of a rate hike in the month’s ahead remain elevated.

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And it was data contributing to the commodity bloc moves as well. USDCAD is lower after the Canadian dollar caught a bid on the back of the much stronger than expected 1.6% in Canadian manufacturing sales. The pundits had guesstimated a fall of 0.1%. That means USDCAD has continued to reverse of the range highs and is back at 1.2458, down 0.5%.

The Kiwi is down 0.3% at 0.7150 as traders await the decision of New Zealand First today on who it will form a coalition with to form a government. I’ll leave the rhetoric about who is better for the Kiwi to others but for me, the key levels for forex traders to watch is a break of either 0.7115 or 0.7210 will get the market moving.

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