If the election was today, Donald Trump would win


If you are Team Clinton or Team Never Trump, Monday morning offered a brutal wake-up call. Since the Republican convention, Donald Trump has now passed Clinton in two national polls (and in the RealClearPolitics average), and is projected to win the election were it to be held today, as shown in FiveThirtyEight‘s models:

Particularly concerning for the anti-Trump crowd are the projections for the swing states of Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, which the model shows going for Trump.

There is a sliver of good news for Clinton supporters, though; FiveThirtyEight‘s poll-plus model, which corrects for Trump’s post-convention surge, shows her still in the lead:

FiveThirtyEight‘s leading statistician, Nate Silver, accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election and correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states in 2012. Last week he tweeted, “Don’t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It’s a close election right now.”

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